3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Aaron Burbridge (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #198 (range #196-#200, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 50% — elevated. Production concentrated in one season: best 1258 receiving yards vs 4-season mean 544. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #82 and the model won't take him before #198 — a 116-spot markdown. The discount is earned — one-year wonder leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Kenny Lawler (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #212 (range #210-#214, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 50% — elevated. Drafted #243 by SEA in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #124 and the model won't take him before #212 — a 88-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Devin Fuller (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #232 (range #218-#246, wide band). Bust probability sits at 34% — real but not disqualifying. Drafted #238 by ATL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #232 stands alone — and with bust risk at 34%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.