3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Derrick Kindred (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #100 (range #90-#110, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 11% — low. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #100 stands alone — and with bust risk at 11%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects K.J. Dillon (age 22.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #202 (range #188-#216, wide band). Bust probability sits at 21% — manageable. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #202 stands alone — and with bust risk at 21%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects T.J. Green (age 21.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #93 (range #83-#103, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 2% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 77 spots ahead of the room (board #93 vs consensus #170), and at a 2% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.