3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Keenan Reynolds (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #227 (range #225-#229, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 50% — elevated. School SP+ 12.1 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. Drafted #182 by BAL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #227 stands alone — and with bust risk at 50%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Wendell Smallwood (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #195 (range #193-#197, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 16% — manageable. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 221 → 722 → 1519. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. PPA avg_all 0.268 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #195 stands alone — and with bust risk at 16%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects C.J. Prosise (age 21.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #48 (range #46-#50, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. PPA avg_all 0.252 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 71 spots ahead of the room (board #48 vs consensus #119), and at a 6% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.