3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Ricardo Louis (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #147 (range #145-#149, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 14% — low. Production concentrated in one season: best 716 receiving yards vs 4-season mean 334. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #147 stands alone — and with bust risk at 14%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Demarcus Robinson (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #116 (range #114-#118, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 9% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 50 spots ahead of the room (board #116 vs consensus #166), and at a 9% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Malcolm Mitchell (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #208 (range #206-#210, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 32% — real but not disqualifying. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #158 and the model won't take him before #208 — a 50-spot markdown. The 50-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.