3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Curtis Samuel (age 20.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #92 (range #47-#137, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter), Devin Funchess (Franchise), Darren Waller (Contributor). Ceiling is Devin Funchess (Franchise); floor is Darren Waller (Contributor). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 95 → 289 → 865. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Production concentrated in one season: best 865 receiving yards vs 3-season mean 416. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #57 and the model won't take him before #92 — a 35-spot markdown. The discount is earned — one-year wonder leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Ryan Switzer (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #241 (range #192-#290, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter), Devin Funchess (Franchise), Stefon Diggs (Franchise). Ceiling is Devin Funchess (Franchise); floor is Dezmin Lewis (Starter). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #106 and the model won't take him before #241 — a 136-spot markdown. The 136-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Isaiah Ford (age 21.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #171 (range #140-#202, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter), Jamison Crowder (Franchise), Stefon Diggs (Franchise). Ceiling is Nelson Agholor (Franchise); floor is Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter). Drafted #237 by MIA in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #85 and the model won't take him before #171 — a 86-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.