3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Tyus Bowser (age 21.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #66 (range #33-#99, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Eli Harold (Starter), Shaq Thompson (Starter), Kwon Alexander (Franchise). Ceiling is Vic Beasley (Franchise); floor is Jake Ryan (Starter). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #66 sits within 5 spots of the room's #61 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Carl Lawson (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #59 (range #22-#96, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Tony Steward (Bust), Neiron Ball (Bust), Jordan Hicks (Franchise). Ceiling is Jordan Hicks (Franchise); floor is Xzavier Dickson. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tony Steward, Neiron Ball. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #59 sits within 7 spots of the room's #52 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects T.J. Watt (age 22.5 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #76 (range #38-#114, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kwon Alexander (Franchise), Vic Beasley (Franchise), Shaq Thompson (Starter). Ceiling is Vic Beasley (Franchise); floor is Eli Harold (Starter). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #45 and the model won't take him before #76 — a 31-spot markdown. The 31-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.