Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2017 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
JW
Joe Williams
RB · Utah
23.6 yo · 5'11" · 210 lb
DM
Devante Mays
RB · Utah St.
22.9 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Devante Mays over Joe Williams.

Decisive factor: 52-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 18 points lower and a stronger historical comp arc.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Joe Williams
Predicted pick
#242
range #213–#271
Bust probability
66%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Devante Mays
Predicted pick
#190
range #157–#223
Bust probability
48%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Franchise
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Joe Williams· RB / WR / TE
  • Devante Mays· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJoe Williams41
  • AthleticismJoe Williams33
  • AgeDevante Mays43
  • ConsensusJoe Williams4
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Joe Williams50
  • Breakout ageJoe Williams50
  • WorkloadJoe Williams100
  • RAS × productionJoe Williams50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • David CobbRB · Bust→ shared byJoe WilliamsDevante Mays
  • David JohnsonRB · Franchise→ shared byJoe WilliamsDevante Mays
  • Josh RobinsonRB · Bust→ shared byJoe WilliamsDevante Mays
Joe Williams
  • Jeremy Langford
    RB · #106
    Starter
  • David Cobbshared
    RB · #138
    Bust
  • David Johnsonshared
    RB · #86
    Franchise
  • Cameron Artis-Payne
    RB · #174
    Starter
  • Josh Robinsonshared
    RB · #205
    Bust
Devante Mays
  • Duke Johnson
    RB · #77
    Franchise
  • David Cobbshared
    RB · #138
    Bust
  • Josh Robinsonshared
    RB · #205
    Bust
  • David Johnsonshared
    RB · #86
    Franchise
  • Tevin Coleman
    RB · #73
    Franchise

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Joe Williams
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #121 by SFO in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: David Cobb, Josh Robinson. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #184; model has him #242 — a 58-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Promising comp group
    3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Jeremy Langford, David Johnson, Cameron Artis-Payne.
Devante Mays
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #494; model has him #190 — a 304-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: David Cobb, Josh Robinson. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
  • Promising comp group
    3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Tevin Coleman.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Joe WilliamsDevante Mays· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Joe Williams

Draftanomics projects Joe Williams (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #242 (range #213-#271, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 66% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jeremy Langford (Starter), David Cobb (Bust), David Johnson (Franchise). Ceiling is David Johnson (Franchise); floor is Cameron Artis-Payne (Starter). Drafted #121 by SFO in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #184 and the model won't take him before #242 — a 58-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.

Devante Mays

Draftanomics projects Devante Mays (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #190 (range #157-#223, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 48% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Duke Johnson (Franchise), David Cobb (Bust), Josh Robinson (Bust). Ceiling is Tevin Coleman (Franchise); floor is David Johnson (Franchise). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 304 spots ahead of the room (board #190 vs consensus #494) — but size the bet for the 48% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.