3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Corn Elder (age 22.5 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #81 (range #27-#135, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Quandre Diggs (Franchise), Tevin Mitchel, Marcus Peters (Franchise). Ceiling is Marcus Peters (Franchise); floor is Tevin Mitchel. Drafted #152 by CAR in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a value lean: #81 against a consensus #98 is a 17-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with missed entire rookie season the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Tre'Davious White (age 22.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #82 (range #56-#108, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Damian Swann (Bust), Doran Grant (Bust), Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. Ceiling is Quandre Diggs (Franchise); floor is Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Damian Swann, Doran Grant. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #33 and the model won't take him before #82 — a 49-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Ahkello Witherspoon (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #129 (range #84-#174, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Eric Rowe (Franchise), Bobby McCain (Starter), Tye Smith (Bust). Ceiling is Marcus Peters (Franchise); floor is Bobby McCain (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Tye Smith, Charles Gaines. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #87 and the model won't take him before #129 — a 42-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.