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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OLB)
PT
Pita Taumoepenu
OLB · Utah
23.1 yo · 6'1" · 243 lb
JC
Josh Carraway
OLB · TCU
23.0 yo · — · —
KA
Keion Adams
OLB · Western Michigan
21.9 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Pita Taumoepenu
Predicted pick
#244
range #206–#282
Bust probability
39%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Josh Carraway
Predicted pick
#216
range #179–#253
Bust probability
24%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Keion Adams
Predicted pick
#180
range #178–#182
Bust probability
65%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Pita Taumoepenu· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Josh Carraway· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Keion Adams· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionPita Taumoepenu0
  • AthleticismPita Taumoepenu36
  • AgeKeion Adams96
  • ConsensusKeion Adams6
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Pita Taumoepenu50
  • Breakout agePita Taumoepenu50
  • WorkloadPita Taumoepenu100
  • RAS × productionPita Taumoepenu31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Randy GregoryOLB · Starter→ shared byPita TaumoepenuJosh Carraway
  • Deiontrez MountOLB · Contributor→ shared byPita TaumoepenuJosh Carraway
Pita Taumoepenu
  • Randy Gregoryshared
    OLB · #60
    Starter
  • Edmond Robinson
    OLB · #232
    Bust
  • Jake Ryan
    OLB · #129
    Starter
  • Deiontrez Mountshared
    OLB · #177
    Contributor
  • D.J. Alexander
    OLB · #172
    Bust
Josh Carraway
  • Randy Gregoryshared
    OLB · #60
    Starter
  • Deiontrez Mountshared
    OLB · #177
    Contributor
  • Lorenzo Mauldin
    OLB · #82
    Starter
  • Martrell Spaight
    OLB · #141
    Contributor
  • Bud Dupree
    OLB · #22
    Franchise
Keion Adams
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Pita Taumoepenu
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #314; model has him #244 — a 70-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Edmond Robinson, D.J. Alexander. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Josh Carraway
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #157; model has him #216 — a 59-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Randy Gregory, Lorenzo Mauldin, Bud Dupree. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Keion Adams
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #248 by PIT in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #380; model has him #180 — a 200-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 11.5 (MID-AMERICAN). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Pita TaumoepenuJosh CarrawayKeion Adams· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Pita Taumoepenu

Draftanomics projects Pita Taumoepenu (age 23.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #244 (range #206-#282, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 39% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Randy Gregory (Starter), Edmond Robinson (Bust), Jake Ryan (Starter). Ceiling is Randy Gregory (Starter); floor is Deiontrez Mount (Contributor). Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 70 spots ahead of the room (board #244 vs consensus #314), and at a 39% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Josh Carraway

Draftanomics projects Josh Carraway (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #216 (range #179-#253, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 24% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Randy Gregory (Starter), Deiontrez Mount (Contributor), Lorenzo Mauldin (Starter). Ceiling is Bud Dupree (Franchise); floor is Deiontrez Mount (Contributor). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #157 and the model won't take him before #216 — a 59-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Keion Adams

Draftanomics projects Keion Adams (age 21.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #180 (range #178-#182, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. School SP+ 11.5 (MID-AMERICAN). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. Drafted #248 by PIT in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 200 spots ahead of the room (board #180 vs consensus #380) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.