2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 85-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 40 points lower and a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Derrick Jones (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #237 (range #183-#291, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 40% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Marcus Peters (Franchise), Charles Gaines (Bust), Steven Nelson (Starter). Ceiling is Marcus Peters (Franchise); floor is Steven Nelson (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Charles Gaines, Ryan Murphy, Alex Carter. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 540 spots ahead of the room (board #237 vs consensus #777), and at a 40% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Cameron Sutton (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #152 (range #114-#190, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Senquez Golson, Charles Gaines (Bust), Marcus Peters (Franchise). Ceiling is Marcus Peters (Franchise); floor is Senquez Golson. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Charles Gaines, Alex Carter. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #91 and the model won't take him before #152 — a 61-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.