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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2017 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (LB)
RM
Raekwon McMillan
LB · Ohio St.
21.4 yo · — · —
JD
Jarrad Davis
LB · Florida
21.4 yo · — · —
DR
Duke Riley
LB · LSU
22.7 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Raekwon McMillan
Predicted pick
#39
range #3–#172
Bust probability
33%
Consensus rank
#66
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Jarrad Davis
Predicted pick
#45
range #19–#149
Bust probability
28%
Consensus rank
#37
on 25 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Duke Riley
Predicted pick
#108
range #28–#216
Bust probability
39%
Consensus rank
#150
on 18 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Raekwon McMillan· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Jarrad Davis· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Duke Riley· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionRaekwon McMillan0
  • AthleticismRaekwon McMillan36
  • AgeRaekwon McMillan86
  • ConsensusJarrad Davis43
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Raekwon McMillan50
  • Breakout ageRaekwon McMillan50
  • WorkloadRaekwon McMillan100
  • RAS × productionRaekwon McMillan31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Raekwon McMillan
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jarrad Davis
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Duke Riley
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Raekwon McMillan
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jarrad Davis
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Duke Riley
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Raekwon McMillanJarrad DavisDuke Riley· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Raekwon McMillan

+0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.02 age; +0.02 charting run def grade career avg

Jarrad Davis

+0.07 boards with him top-100; +0.04 boards with him top-50; +0.03 charting: pass-rush productivity (true pass sets), career avg

Duke Riley

+0.05 boards with him top-100; −0.03 charting total career snaps; −0.03 scout consensus