2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 57 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Isaiah McKenzie (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #221 (range #171-#271, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Darren Waller (Contributor), Devin Funchess (Franchise), Stefon Diggs (Franchise). Ceiling is Devin Funchess (Franchise); floor is Tre McBride (Contributor). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 67 → 123 → 633. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.28 — well below the skill average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #152 and the model won't take him before #221 — a 69-spot markdown. The discount is earned — below-cohort college production leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Robert Davis (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #198 (range #146-#250, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tre McBride (Contributor), Geremy Davis (Starter), Mario Alford (Bust). Ceiling is Phillip Dorsett (Franchise); floor is Tre McBride (Contributor). School SP+ rating -12.1 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #99 (1=hardest). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #178 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — small-school competition leads the case against.