2 prospects · 2017 draft
Brian Allen and Nate Hairston project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Brian Allen (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #220 (range #166-#274, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 40% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Craig Mager (Starter), Dexter McDonald (Contributor), Trae Waynes (Starter). Ceiling is Trae Waynes (Starter); floor is Dexter McDonald (Contributor). Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #179 and the model won't take him before #220 — a 41-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Nate Hairston (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #251 (range #196-#306, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Randall Evans (Bust), Akeem King (Bust), Trae Waynes (Starter). Ceiling is Trae Waynes (Starter); floor is Craig Mager (Starter). School SP+ 11.9 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Randall Evans, Akeem King, Tray Walker. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #144 and the model won't take him before #251 — a 107-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.