Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2017 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OLB)
KA
Keion Adams
OLB · Western Michigan
21.9 yo · — · —
JC
Josh Carraway
OLB · TCU
23.0 yo · — · —
SE
Samson Ebukam
OLB · Eastern Washington
22.0 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Keion Adams
Predicted pick
#180
range #178–#182
Bust probability
65%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel
Josh Carraway
Predicted pick
#216
range #179–#253
Bust probability
24%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Samson Ebukam
Predicted pick
#138
range #117–#159
Bust probability
3%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Keion Adams· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Josh Carraway· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Samson Ebukam· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKeion Adams0
  • AthleticismKeion Adams36
  • AgeKeion Adams96
  • ConsensusKeion Adams6
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Keion Adams50
  • Breakout ageKeion Adams50
  • WorkloadKeion Adams100
  • RAS × productionKeion Adams31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Keion Adams
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Josh Carraway
  • Randy Gregory
    OLB · #60
    Starter
  • Deiontrez Mount
    OLB · #177
    Contributor
  • Lorenzo Mauldin
    OLB · #82
    Starter
  • Martrell Spaight
    OLB · #141
    Contributor
  • Bud Dupree
    OLB · #22
    Franchise
Samson Ebukam
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Keion Adams
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #248 by PIT in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #380; model has him #180 — a 200-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 11.5 (MID-AMERICAN). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.
Josh Carraway
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #157; model has him #216 — a 59-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Randy Gregory, Lorenzo Mauldin, Bud Dupree. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Samson Ebukam
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #558; model has him #138 — a 420-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Keion AdamsJosh CarrawaySamson Ebukam· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Keion Adams

Draftanomics projects Keion Adams (age 21.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #180 (range #178-#182, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. School SP+ 11.5 (MID-AMERICAN). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. Drafted #248 by PIT in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 200 spots ahead of the room (board #180 vs consensus #380) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.

Josh Carraway

Draftanomics projects Josh Carraway (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #216 (range #179-#253, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 24% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Randy Gregory (Starter), Deiontrez Mount (Contributor), Lorenzo Mauldin (Starter). Ceiling is Bud Dupree (Franchise); floor is Deiontrez Mount (Contributor). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #157 and the model won't take him before #216 — a 59-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Samson Ebukam

Draftanomics projects Samson Ebukam (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #138 (range #117-#159, wide band). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 420 spots ahead of the room (board #138 vs consensus #558), and at a 3% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.