3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Samaje Perine (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #107 (range #78-#136, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: T.J. Yeldon (Franchise), Jeremy Langford (Starter), David Cobb (Bust). Ceiling is T.J. Yeldon (Franchise); floor is Jeremy Langford (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: David Cobb, Karlos Williams. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #92 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jeremy McNichols (age 21.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #147 (range #102-#192, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jay Ajayi (Franchise), Tevin Coleman (Franchise), Josh Robinson (Bust). Ceiling is Melvin Gordon (Franchise); floor is Jay Ajayi (Franchise). Career trajectory in rushing yards: 159 → 1337 → 1709. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. PPA avg_all 0.254 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #104 and the model won't take him before #147 — a 43-spot markdown. The discount is earned — negative per-play impact leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Kareem Hunt (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #52 (range #23-#81, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Josh Robinson (Bust), Jeremy Langford (Starter). Ceiling is Tevin Coleman (Franchise); floor is Jeremy Langford (Starter). School SP+ 12.3 (MID-AMERICAN). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: David Cobb, Josh Robinson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 36 spots ahead of the room (board #52 vs consensus #88), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.