3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jeremy Sprinkle (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #212 (range #164-#260, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tyler Kroft (Starter), Randall Telfer (Starter), Jesse James (Franchise). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is Rory Anderson. 40-yard dash of 4.69s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #102 and the model won't take him before #212 — a 110-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.69s) leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jake Butt (age 21.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #128 (range #103-#153, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jeff Heuerman (Starter), Jesse James (Franchise), Randall Telfer (Starter). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is C.J. Uzomah (Contributor). Drafted #145 by DEN in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #90 and the model won't take him before #128 — a 38-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Bucky Hodges (age 21.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #85 (range #52-#118, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 66% — scary. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Geoff Swaim (Starter), Jesse James (Franchise), Nick Boyle (Starter). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is Geoff Swaim (Starter). Drafted #201 by MIN in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #71 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.