Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2017 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (TE)
JS
Jeremy Sprinkle
TE · Arkansas
22.7 yo · 6'5" · 252 lb
JL
Jordan Leggett
TE · Clemson
22.2 yo · 6'5" · 258 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Jeremy Sprinkle over Jordan Leggett.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 65 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jeremy Sprinkle
Predicted pick
#212
range #164–#260
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#132
on 5 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Jordan Leggett
Predicted pick
#202
range #169–#235
Bust probability
65%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#89
on 8 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jeremy Sprinkle· RB / WR / TE
  • Jordan Leggett· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJeremy Sprinkle41
  • AthleticismJordan Leggett33
  • AgeJordan Leggett82
  • ConsensusJordan Leggett7
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jeremy Sprinkle50
  • Breakout ageJeremy Sprinkle50
  • WorkloadJordan Leggett100
  • RAS × productionJeremy Sprinkle50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Jesse JamesTE · Franchise→ shared byJeremy SprinkleJordan Leggett
  • Maxx WilliamsTE · Starter→ shared byJeremy SprinkleJordan Leggett
Jeremy Sprinkle
  • Tyler Kroft
    TE · #85
    Starter
  • Randall Telfer
    TE · #198
    Starter
  • Jesse Jamesshared
    TE · #160
    Franchise
  • Rory Anderson
    TE · #254
    TBD
  • Maxx Williamsshared
    TE · #55
    Starter
Jordan Leggett
  • Jeff Heuerman
    TE · #92
    Starter
  • C.J. Uzomah
    TE · #157
    Contributor
  • Maxx Williamsshared
    TE · #55
    Starter
  • Nick O'Leary
    TE · #194
    Starter
  • Jesse Jamesshared
    TE · #160
    Franchise

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jeremy Sprinkle
Risks
  • TE slow 40 (4.69s)
    40-yard dash of 4.69s — below-average separation speed for the position.
  • Below-cohort college production
    Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.82 — well below the skill average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    6 boards have him at mean rank #102; model has him #212 — a 110-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Strong comp group
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Tyler Kroft, Randall Telfer, Jesse James (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Jordan Leggett
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #150 by NYJ in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    9 boards have him at mean rank #76; model has him #202 — a 126-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Strong comp group
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Jeff Heuerman, Maxx Williams, Nick O'Leary (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jeremy SprinkleJordan Leggett· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jeremy Sprinkle

Draftanomics projects Jeremy Sprinkle (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #212 (range #164-#260, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tyler Kroft (Starter), Randall Telfer (Starter), Jesse James (Franchise). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is Rory Anderson. 40-yard dash of 4.69s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #102 and the model won't take him before #212 — a 110-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.69s) leads the case against.

Jordan Leggett

Draftanomics projects Jordan Leggett (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #202 (range #169-#235, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jeff Heuerman (Starter), C.J. Uzomah (Contributor), Maxx Williams (Starter). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is C.J. Uzomah (Contributor). Drafted #150 by NYJ in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #76 and the model won't take him before #202 — a 126-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.