2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 139-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 52 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Joshua Holsey (age 23.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #252 (range #208-#296, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 52% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Dexter McDonald (Contributor), Josh Shaw (Starter), Tevin Mitchel. Ceiling is Craig Mager (Starter); floor is Dexter McDonald (Contributor). Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 123 spots ahead of the room (board #252 vs consensus #375) — but size the bet for the 52% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Cordrea Tankersley (age 23.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #113 (range #58-#168, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Tevin Mitchel, Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Senquez Golson. Ceiling is Trae Waynes (Starter); floor is Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #67 and the model won't take him before #113 — a 46-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.