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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2017 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
DW
Davis Webb
QB · California
22.3 yo · 6'5" · 229 lb
CB
C.J. Beathard
QB · Iowa
23.4 yo · 6'2" · 219 lb
BK
Brad Kaaya
QB · Miami (FL)
21.6 yo · 6'4" · 214 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Davis Webb
Predicted pick
#158
range #55–#203
Bust probability· rough estimate
34%
Consensus rank
#136
on 19 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
C.J. Beathard
Predicted pick
#234
range #97–#249
Bust probability· rough estimate
31%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Brad Kaaya
Predicted pick
#217
range #76–#260
Bust probability· rough estimate
30%
Consensus rank
#68
on 5 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Davis Webb· QB
  • C.J. Beathard· QB
  • Brad Kaaya· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDavis Webb0
  • AthleticismDavis Webb46
  • AgeBrad Kaaya100
  • ConsensusBrad Kaaya17
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Davis Webb50
  • Breakout ageDavis Webb50
  • WorkloadDavis Webb50
  • RAS × productionDavis Webb100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Davis Webb
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
C.J. Beathard
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Brad Kaaya
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Davis Webb
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
C.J. Beathard
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Brad Kaaya
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Davis WebbC.J. BeathardBrad Kaaya· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Davis Webb

−0.04 production trajectory; −0.03 scout consensus; −0.03 Power-5 production share

C.J. Beathard

−0.05 age; −0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.03 scout consensus

Brad Kaaya

−0.03 charting gap run block grade; +0.03 age; −0.03 boards with him top-100