2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 19 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Rasul Douglas (age 22.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #72 (range #20-#124, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Marcus Peters (Franchise), Steven Nelson (Starter), Ryan Murphy (Bust). Ceiling is Marcus Peters (Franchise); floor is Steven Nelson (Starter). 40-yard dash of 4.59s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a value lean: #72 against a consensus #88 is a 16-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with cb slow 40 (4.59s) the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Chuck Clark (age 22.0 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #60 (range #3-#117, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 19% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Charles Gaines (Bust), Marcus Peters (Franchise), Alex Carter (Bust). Ceiling is Marcus Peters (Franchise); floor is Senquez Golson. 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Charles Gaines, Alex Carter, Ryan Murphy. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 228 spots ahead of the room (board #60 vs consensus #288), and at a 19% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.