3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jake Butt (age 21.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #128 (range #103-#153, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jeff Heuerman (Starter), Jesse James (Franchise), Randall Telfer (Starter). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is C.J. Uzomah (Contributor). Drafted #145 by DEN in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #90 and the model won't take him before #128 — a 38-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Leggett (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #202 (range #169-#235, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jeff Heuerman (Starter), C.J. Uzomah (Contributor), Maxx Williams (Starter). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is C.J. Uzomah (Contributor). Drafted #150 by NYJ in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #76 and the model won't take him before #202 — a 126-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Evan Engram (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #48 (range #16-#80, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Malcolm Johnson (Starter), Jesse James (Franchise), Maxx Williams (Starter). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is Malcolm Johnson (Starter). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #48 sits within 8 spots of the room's #40 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.