3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Matt Milano (age 22.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #75 (range #33-#117, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Benardrick McKinney (Franchise), Brian Mihalik (Bust), David Mayo (Contributor). Ceiling is Benardrick McKinney (Franchise); floor is Max Valles. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 154 spots ahead of the room (board #75 vs consensus #229), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Blair Brown (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #61 (range #19-#103, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 51% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Preston Smith (Franchise), Christian Ringo (Starter), Kristjan Sokoli. Ceiling is Preston Smith (Franchise); floor is Kristjan Sokoli. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 42 spots ahead of the room (board #61 vs consensus #103) — but size the bet for the 51% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Marquel Lee (age 21.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #116 (range #65-#167, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Benardrick McKinney (Franchise), Preston Smith (Franchise), Tyeler Davison (Franchise). Ceiling is Preston Smith (Franchise); floor is David Mayo (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 152 spots ahead of the room (board #116 vs consensus #268), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.