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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2017 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
AM
Avery Moss
EDGE · Youngstown St.
22.6 yo · — · —
JL
Jeremiah Ledbetter
EDGE · Arkansas
22.9 yo · — · —
DS
Dawuane Smoot
EDGE · Illinois
22.1 yo · 6'3" · 264 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Avery Moss
Predicted pick
#153
range #96–#246
Bust probability
49%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel
Jeremiah Ledbetter
Predicted pick
#181
range #124–#274
Bust probability
63%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Dawuane Smoot
Predicted pick
#109
range #29–#217
Bust probability
3%
Consensus rank
#138
on 18 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Avery Moss· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Jeremiah Ledbetter· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Dawuane Smoot· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAvery Moss0
  • AthleticismAvery Moss36
  • AgeDawuane Smoot93
  • ConsensusDawuane Smoot5
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Avery Moss50
  • Breakout ageAvery Moss50
  • WorkloadJeremiah Ledbetter100
  • RAS × productionAvery Moss31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Avery Moss
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jeremiah Ledbetter
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Dawuane Smoot
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Avery Moss
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Jeremiah Ledbetter
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Dawuane Smoot
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Avery MossJeremiah LedbetterDawuane Smoot· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Avery Moss

−0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.03 workload share; +0.03 SOS-weighted production

Jeremiah Ledbetter

−0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; +0.03 HS recruit rating

Dawuane Smoot

−0.03 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg; +0.03 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age