3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Eric Saubert (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #183 (range #166-#200, wide band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #183 sits within 4 spots of the room's #187 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 20% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects George Kittle (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #218 (range #201-#235, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Malcolm Johnson (Starter), Kennard Backman (Bust), A.J. Derby (Starter). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is A.J. Derby (Starter). Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #85 and the model won't take him before #218 — a 133-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Gerald Everett (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #176 (range #161-#191, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Malcolm Johnson (Starter), MyCole Pruitt (Starter), Kennard Backman (Bust). Ceiling is MyCole Pruitt (Starter); floor is James O'Shaughnessy (Contributor). Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.03 — well below the skill average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #77 and the model won't take him before #176 — a 99-spot markdown. The discount is earned — below-cohort college production leads the case against.