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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2017 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (S)
NG
Nathan Gerry
S · Nebraska
22.2 yo · — · —
JJ
Josh Jones
S · North Carolina St.
22.6 yo · — · —
TT
Tedric Thompson
S · Colorado
22.3 yo · 6'0" · 204 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Nathan Gerry
Predicted pick
#29
range #38–#164
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
Consensus rank
#155
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Josh Jones
Predicted pick
#68
range #21–#186
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
Consensus rank
#87
on 19 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Tedric Thompson
Predicted pick
#126
range #46–#234
Bust probability· rough estimate
9%
Consensus rank
#72
on 3 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Nathan Gerry· CB / S
  • Josh Jones· CB / S
  • Tedric Thompson· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJosh Jones94
  • AthleticismNathan Gerry36
  • AgeTedric Thompson95
  • ConsensusTedric Thompson10
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Nathan Gerry50
  • Breakout ageNathan Gerry50
  • WorkloadNathan Gerry100
  • RAS × productionNathan Gerry53

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Nathan Gerry
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Josh Jones
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tedric Thompson
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Nathan Gerry
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Josh Jones
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tedric Thompson
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Nathan GerryJosh JonesTedric Thompson· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Nathan Gerry

+0.04 charting: pass-rush productivity (true pass sets), career avg; −0.03 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting def grade mean

Josh Jones

+0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 charting: pass-rush productivity (true pass sets), career avg; −0.02 scout consensus

Tedric Thompson

−0.03 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age; +0.03 charting def grade mean