2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 27 points lower. Reinforced by 39-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects De'Angelo Henderson (age 24.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #203 (range #182-#224, wide band). Bust probability sits at 43% — real but not disqualifying. Age 24.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #203 stands alone — and with bust risk at 43%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Joe Williams (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #242 (range #213-#271, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 70% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jeremy Langford (Starter), David Cobb (Bust), David Johnson (Franchise). Ceiling is David Johnson (Franchise); floor is Cameron Artis-Payne (Starter). Drafted #121 by SFO in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #242 stands alone — and with bust risk at 70%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.