3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Elijah Qualls (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #194 (range #152-#236, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Michael Bennett (Starter), Gabe Wright (Franchise), Angelo Blackson (Starter). Ceiling is Danny Shelton (Franchise); floor is Michael Bennett (Starter). Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.16 — well below the front7 average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #96 and the model won't take him before #194 — a 98-spot markdown. The discount is earned — below-cohort college production leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Dalvin Tomlinson (age 23.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #104 (range #66-#142, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Gabe Wright (Franchise), Angelo Blackson (Starter), David Parry (Franchise). Ceiling is Danny Shelton (Franchise); floor is Michael Bennett (Starter). Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #71 and the model won't take him before #104 — a 33-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Caleb Brantley (age 22.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #79 (range #36-#122, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 48% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Gabe Wright (Franchise), Danny Shelton (Franchise), Michael Bennett (Starter). Ceiling is Danny Shelton (Franchise); floor is Michael Bennett (Starter). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 16 spots below the room's consensus #63 — don't pay sticker price. A 48% bust probability backs the 16-spot markdown.