2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 36 points lower. Reinforced by 49-pick gap on Draftanomics projection, a stronger historical comp arc and $7M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Marquez White (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #201 (range #149-#253, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 66% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jalen Collins (Starter), Senquez Golson, Charles Gaines (Bust). Ceiling is Jalen Collins (Starter); floor is Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. Drafted #216 by DAL in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #201 stands alone — and with bust risk at 66%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Cameron Sutton (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #152 (range #114-#190, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 30% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Senquez Golson, Charles Gaines (Bust), Marcus Peters (Franchise). Ceiling is Marcus Peters (Franchise); floor is Senquez Golson. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Charles Gaines, Alex Carter. Mixed signal from history. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 13 spots below the room's consensus #139 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.