3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Isaac Rochell (age 22.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #200 (range #158-#242, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 42% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Michael Bennett (Starter), Gabe Wright (Franchise), Angelo Blackson (Starter). Ceiling is Arik Armstead (Franchise); floor is Michael Bennett (Starter). School SP+ 15.7 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #200 stands alone — and with bust risk at 42%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Montravius Adams (age 21.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #157 (range #114-#200, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 43% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Michael Bennett (Starter), Gabe Wright (Franchise), Angelo Blackson (Starter). Ceiling is Danny Shelton (Franchise); floor is Michael Bennett (Starter). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #86 and the model won't take him before #157 — a 71-spot markdown. The 71-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Elijah Qualls (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #194 (range #152-#236, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 36% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Michael Bennett (Starter), Gabe Wright (Franchise), Angelo Blackson (Starter). Ceiling is Danny Shelton (Franchise); floor is Michael Bennett (Starter). Position-cohort z-score on production composite is -1.16 — well below the front7 average. Raw box-score output didn't keep pace with peers. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #84 and the model won't take him before #194 — a 110-spot markdown. The discount is earned — below-cohort college production leads the case against.