Draftanomics
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • 2028 way-too-early
  • Draft news
  • Simulator
  • The house mock
  • Draft order
  • Trade calculator
  • The Scouting Slate
  • Sleepers & reaches
  • Movers & fallers
  • Player comps
  • Dynasty rookie board
  • Track record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Analyst leaderboard
My rankingsAccount
Get the weekly →
Draftanomics

Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

Boards
  • 2027 board
  • Consensus board
  • Sleepers
Tools
  • Mock draft simulator
  • Plays Like
  • Dynasty rookie board
Track Record
  • Year-by-year results
  • Accountability Index
  • Our board, on the record
  • Past drafts, re-graded
  • Methodology
  • Developers · free API
  • About
Account
  • My board
  • Weekly email
Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2017 board/
  4. Compare

Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
MD
Matthew Dayes
RB · North Carolina St.
21.6 yo · — · —
KM
Khalfani Muhammad
RB · California
22.6 yo · — · —
BH
Brian Hill
RB · Wyoming
21.5 yo · 6'1" · 219 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Matthew Dayes
Predicted pick
#144
range #114–#274
Bust probability
48%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Khalfani Muhammad
Predicted pick
#226
range #89–#241
Bust probability
79%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Brian Hill
Predicted pick
#161
range #48–#245
Bust probability
22%
Consensus rank
#104
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Matthew Dayes· RB / WR / TE
  • Khalfani Muhammad· RB / WR / TE
  • Brian Hill· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMatthew Dayes41
  • AthleticismKhalfani Muhammad33
  • AgeMatthew Dayes100
  • ConsensusBrian Hill12
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Matthew Dayes50
  • Breakout ageMatthew Dayes50
  • WorkloadMatthew Dayes100
  • RAS × productionMatthew Dayes50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Matthew Dayes
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Khalfani Muhammad
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Brian Hill
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Matthew Dayes
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Khalfani Muhammad
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Brian Hill
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Matthew DayesKhalfani MuhammadBrian Hill· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Matthew Dayes

+0.03 age; −0.03 boards with him top-100; −0.03 scout consensus

Khalfani Muhammad

−0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.03 scout consensus

Brian Hill

−0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.02 age; −0.02 charting hands grade