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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
MD
Matthew Dayes
RB · North Carolina St.
21.6 yo · — · —
DF
D'Onta Foreman
RB · Texas
21.0 yo · 6'0" · 233 lb
KM
Khalfani Muhammad
RB · California
22.6 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Matthew Dayes
Predicted pick
#144
range #114–#274
Bust probability
48%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
D'Onta Foreman
Predicted pick
#166
range #53–#250
Bust probability
75%
Consensus rank
#98
on 18 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Khalfani Muhammad
Predicted pick
#226
range #89–#241
Bust probability
79%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Matthew Dayes· RB / WR / TE
  • D'Onta Foreman· RB / WR / TE
  • Khalfani Muhammad· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMatthew Dayes41
  • AthleticismD'Onta Foreman33
  • AgeMatthew Dayes100
  • ConsensusD'Onta Foreman6
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Matthew Dayes50
  • Breakout ageMatthew Dayes50
  • WorkloadMatthew Dayes100
  • RAS × productionMatthew Dayes50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Matthew Dayes
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
D'Onta Foreman
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Khalfani Muhammad
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Matthew Dayes
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
D'Onta Foreman
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Khalfani Muhammad
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Matthew DayesD'Onta ForemanKhalfani Muhammad· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Matthew Dayes

+0.03 age; −0.03 boards with him top-100; −0.03 scout consensus

D'Onta Foreman

+0.07 boards with him top-100; −0.03 charting total career snaps; −0.03 production trajectory

Khalfani Muhammad

−0.04 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.03 scout consensus