2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 48 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Ryan Glasgow (age 23.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #127 (range #100-#154, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Parry (Franchise), Carl Davis (Starter), Darius Kilgo (Starter). Ceiling is David Parry (Franchise); floor is Darius Kilgo (Starter). Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #127 sits within 5 spots of the room's #132 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Nazair Jones (age 22.4 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #95 (range #46-#144, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 48% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Danny Shelton (Franchise), Angelo Blackson (Starter), Darius Philon (Franchise). Ceiling is Danny Shelton (Franchise); floor is Angelo Blackson (Starter). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #95 and the room's #94 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 48% bust probability break ties on draft day.