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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
DG
Davon Godchaux
DT · LSU
22.4 yo · — · —
MM
Malik McDowell
DT · Michigan St.
20.9 yo · 6'6" · 295 lb
JI
Joey Ivie
DT · Florida
22.3 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Davon Godchaux
Predicted pick
#149
range #36–#233
Bust probability
25%
Consensus rank
#109
on 4 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$13Mmodel
Malik McDowell
Predicted pick
#41
range #15–#145
Bust probability
22%
Consensus rank
#28
on 26 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Joey Ivie
Predicted pick
#210
range #127–#261
Bust probability
28%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Davon Godchaux· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Malik McDowell· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Joey Ivie· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDavon Godchaux0
  • AthleticismDavon Godchaux36
  • AgeDavon Godchaux89
  • ConsensusMalik McDowell45
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Davon Godchaux50
  • Breakout ageDavon Godchaux50
  • WorkloadDavon Godchaux100
  • RAS × productionDavon Godchaux31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Davon Godchaux
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Malik McDowell
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Joey Ivie
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Davon Godchaux
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Malik McDowell
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Joey Ivie
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Davon GodchauxMalik McDowellJoey Ivie· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Davon Godchaux

−0.03 boards with him top-100; −0.03 charting total career snaps; +0.03 age

Malik McDowell

+0.07 boards with him top-100; +0.05 boards with him top-50; −0.05 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg

Joey Ivie

−0.05 charting total career snaps; −0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.04 charting gap run block grade