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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
ST
Solomon Thomas
EDGE · Stanford
21.7 yo · 6'3" · 273 lb
MG
Myles Garrett
EDGE · Texas A&M
21.3 yo · 6'4" · 272 lb
TM
Takkarist McKinley
EDGE · UCLA
21.5 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Solomon Thomas
Predicted pick
#9
range #1–#52
Bust probability
7%
Consensus rank
#3
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$13Mmodel
Myles Garrett
Predicted pick
#6
range #4–#30
Bust probability
4%
Consensus rank
#1
on 27 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$26Mmodel
Takkarist McKinley
Predicted pick
#21
range #9–#64
Bust probability
6%
Consensus rank
#26
on 25 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Solomon Thomas· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Myles Garrett· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Takkarist McKinley· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTakkarist McKinley59
  • AthleticismMyles Garrett100
  • AgeTakkarist McKinley82
  • ConsensusMyles Garrett100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Solomon Thomas50
  • Breakout ageSolomon Thomas50
  • WorkloadSolomon Thomas100
  • RAS × productionSolomon Thomas31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Solomon Thomas
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Myles Garrett
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Takkarist McKinley
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Solomon Thomas
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Myles Garrett
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Takkarist McKinley
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Solomon ThomasMyles GarrettTakkarist McKinley· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Solomon Thomas

+0.11 scout consensus; +0.07 boards with him top-100; +0.04 boards with him top-50

Myles Garrett

+0.11 scout consensus; +0.08 boards with him top-100; +0.05 boards with him top-50

Takkarist McKinley

+0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 boards with him top-50; +0.03 scout consensus