3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Haason Reddick (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #42 (range #4-#80, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Martrell Spaight (Contributor), Nate Orchard (Franchise), Shaquille Riddick. Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. School SP+ 11.9 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 21 spots below the room's consensus #21 — don't pay sticker price. The 21-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Raekwon McMillan (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #39 (range #1-#83, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Arik Armstead (Franchise), Leonard Williams (Franchise), Dante Fowler (Starter). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Deiontrez Mount (Contributor). Drafted #54 by MIA in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a value lean: #39 against a consensus #63 is a 24-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with missed entire rookie season the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Jarrad Davis (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #45 (range #10-#80, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Leonard Williams (Franchise), Martrell Spaight (Contributor), Dante Fowler (Starter). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Martrell Spaight (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #45 sits within 6 spots of the room's #39 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.