3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Derek Barnett (age 20.8 at draft) as a first-round pick at #15 (range #1-#52, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Leonard Williams (Franchise), Shane Ray (Franchise), Shaquille Riddick. Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #15 sits within 6 spots of the room's #21 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Jonathan Allen (age 22.3 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #1 (range #1-#45, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Geneo Grissom (Contributor), Shane Ray (Franchise), Leonard Williams (Franchise). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is B.J. Dubose. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #1 sits within 6 spots of the room's #7 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Takkarist McKinley (age 21.5 at draft) as a first-round pick at #21 (range #1-#75, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Shaquille Riddick, Nate Orchard (Franchise), Za'Darius Smith (Franchise). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #21 sits within 8 spots of the room's #29 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.