3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Tre'Davious White (age 22.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #82 (range #56-#108, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Damian Swann (Bust), Doran Grant (Bust), Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. Ceiling is Quandre Diggs (Franchise); floor is Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Damian Swann, Doran Grant. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #33 and the model won't take him before #82 — a 49-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jourdan Lewis (age 21.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #99 (range #57-#141, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Doran Grant (Bust), Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Damian Swann (Bust). Ceiling is Quandre Diggs (Franchise); floor is Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Doran Grant, Damian Swann. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 24 spots below the room's consensus #75 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Gareon Conley (age 21.8 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #43 (range #1-#94, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Jalen Collins (Starter), Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Senquez Golson. Ceiling is Jalen Collins (Starter); floor is Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. 1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Damian Swann. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #43 sits within 2 spots of the room's #45 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.