3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Zay Jones (age 22.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #100 (range #40-#160, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 8% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kevin White (Starter), Tre McBride (Contributor), Phillip Dorsett (Franchise). Ceiling is Phillip Dorsett (Franchise); floor is Tre McBride (Contributor). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 604 → 830 → 1099 → 1731. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. School SP+ rating -9.0 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #67 (1=hardest). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #61 and the model won't take him before #100 — a 39-spot markdown. The discount is earned — small-school competition leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Carlos Henderson (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #64 (range #43-#85, wide band). Bust probability sits at 43% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jaelen Strong (Franchise), Breshad Perriman (Starter), Justin Hardy (Starter). Ceiling is Nelson Agholor (Franchise); floor is Justin Hardy (Starter). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 569 → 774 → 1535. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Drafted #82 by DEN in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 42 spots ahead of the room (board #64 vs consensus #106), and at a 43% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Chad Hansen (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #177 (range #140-#214, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 29% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jaelen Strong (Franchise), Jamison Crowder (Franchise), Stefon Diggs (Franchise). Ceiling is Jaelen Strong (Franchise); floor is Dezmin Lewis (Starter). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 28 → 249 → 1249. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Production concentrated in one season: best 1249 receiving yards vs 3-season mean 509. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #128 and the model won't take him before #177 — a 49-spot markdown. The discount is earned — one-year wonder leads the case against.