2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 42-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Joe Mixon (age 20.8 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #55 (range #19-#91, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: T.J. Yeldon (Franchise), Jeremy Langford (Starter), Melvin Gordon (Franchise). Ceiling is Todd Gurley (Franchise); floor is Jeremy Langford (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #55 and the room's #54 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Dalvin Cook (age 21.7 at draft) as a first-round pick at #13 (range #1-#49, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: T.J. Yeldon (Franchise), Jeremy Langford (Starter), Jay Ajayi (Franchise). Ceiling is Melvin Gordon (Franchise); floor is Jeremy Langford (Starter). PPA avg_all 0.218 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #13 sits within 5 spots of the room's #18 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.