2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 167-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 45 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects DeShone Kizer (age 21.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #67 (range #13-#121, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jameis Winston (Franchise), Sean Mannion (Franchise), Trevor Siemian (Franchise). Ceiling is Jameis Winston (Franchise); floor is Garrett Grayson. School SP+ 15.7 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. PPA avg_all 0.276 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 25 spots below the room's consensus #42 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — negative per-play impact leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects C.J. Beathard (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #234 (range #180-#288, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 45% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Trevor Siemian (Franchise), Sean Mannion (Franchise), Garrett Grayson. Ceiling is Jameis Winston (Franchise); floor is Garrett Grayson. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #156 and the model won't take him before #234 — a 78-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.