2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 23-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $8M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Larry Ogunjobi (age 22.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #86 (range #53-#119, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Starter), Tyeler Davison (Franchise), Rodney Gunter (Starter). Ceiling is Xavier Cooper (Franchise); floor is Kristjan Sokoli. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #86 and the room's #85 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Dawuane Smoot (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #109 (range #67-#151, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Preston Smith (Franchise), Brian Mihalik (Bust), Ryan Russell (Franchise). Ceiling is Preston Smith (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. School SP+ rating -6.7 (well below FBS median of 0). College production may not translate against NFL-quality DBs/pass-rushers. Schedule rank #42 (1=hardest). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 19 spots below the room's consensus #90 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — small-school competition leads the case against.