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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
TB
Tarell Basham
EDGE · Ohio
23.1 yo · 6'4" · 269 lb
DS
Dawuane Smoot
EDGE · Illinois
22.1 yo · 6'3" · 264 lb
TM
Takkarist McKinley
EDGE · UCLA
21.5 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Tarell Basham
Predicted pick
#117
range #43–#215
Bust probability
7%
Consensus rank
#97
on 18 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Dawuane Smoot
Predicted pick
#109
range #29–#217
Bust probability
3%
Consensus rank
#138
on 18 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel
Takkarist McKinley
Predicted pick
#21
range #9–#64
Bust probability
6%
Consensus rank
#26
on 25 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Tarell Basham· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Dawuane Smoot· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Takkarist McKinley· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionTakkarist McKinley59
  • AthleticismTarell Basham36
  • AgeDawuane Smoot93
  • ConsensusTakkarist McKinley42
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Tarell Basham50
  • Breakout ageTarell Basham50
  • WorkloadTarell Basham100
  • RAS × productionTarell Basham31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Tarell Basham
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Dawuane Smoot
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Takkarist McKinley
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Tarell Basham
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Dawuane Smoot
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Takkarist McKinley
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Tarell BashamDawuane SmootTakkarist McKinley· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Tarell Basham

+0.06 boards with him top-100; −0.03 age; −0.02 charting catch rate allowed avg

Dawuane Smoot

−0.03 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg; +0.03 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age

Takkarist McKinley

+0.06 boards with him top-100; +0.03 boards with him top-50; +0.03 scout consensus