2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 75-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 40 points lower and a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Fabian Moreau (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #145 (range #102-#188, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Bobby McCain (Starter), Eric Rowe (Franchise), Trae Waynes (Starter). Ceiling is Eric Rowe (Franchise); floor is Bobby McCain (Starter). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #70 and the model won't take him before #145 — a 75-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Brian Allen (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #220 (range #166-#274, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 40% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Craig Mager (Starter), Dexter McDonald (Contributor), Trae Waynes (Starter). Ceiling is Trae Waynes (Starter); floor is Dexter McDonald (Contributor). Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #179 and the model won't take him before #220 — a 41-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.