3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Kareem Hunt (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #52 (range #23-#81, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 19% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Josh Robinson (Bust), Jeremy Langford (Starter). Ceiling is Tevin Coleman (Franchise); floor is Jeremy Langford (Starter). School SP+ 12.3 (MID-AMERICAN). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: David Cobb, Josh Robinson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 79 spots ahead of the room (board #52 vs consensus #131), and at a 19% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Devante Mays (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #190 (range #157-#223, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 28% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Duke Johnson (Franchise), David Cobb (Bust), Josh Robinson (Bust). Ceiling is Tevin Coleman (Franchise); floor is David Johnson (Franchise). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #190 stands alone — and with bust risk at 28%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Matthew Dayes (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #144 (range #113-#175, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 48% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), David Johnson (Franchise), Josh Robinson (Bust). Ceiling is Tevin Coleman (Franchise); floor is Mike Davis (Starter). Career trajectory in rushing yards: 252 → 573 → 865 → 1166. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #144 stands alone — and with bust risk at 48%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.