2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: a stronger historical comp arc. Reinforced by 35-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Shaquill Griffin (age 21.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #98 (range #49-#147, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Bobby McCain (Starter), Tye Smith (Bust), D'Joun Smith (Bust). Ceiling is Eric Rowe (Franchise); floor is Bobby McCain (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tye Smith, D'Joun Smith, Ryan Murphy. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #98 sits within 2 spots of the room's #100 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Chidobe Awuzie (age 21.9 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #63 (range #18-#108, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Bobby McCain (Starter), Tye Smith (Bust), Eric Rowe (Franchise). Ceiling is Eric Rowe (Franchise); floor is Bobby McCain (Starter). 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Tye Smith, Ryan Murphy. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #63 sits within 9 spots of the room's #54 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.