3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Amara Darboh (age 23.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #167 (range #128-#206, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kenny Bell, Rashad Greene (Starter), Keith Mumphery (Starter). Ceiling is DeVante Parker (Franchise); floor is Kenny Bell. Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #86 and the model won't take him before #167 — a 81-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jehu Chesson (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #227 (range #192-#262, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kenny Bell, Ty Montgomery (Franchise), Chris Conley (Franchise). Ceiling is Devin Funchess (Franchise); floor is Kaelin Clay (Contributor). Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #159 and the model won't take him before #227 — a 68-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Curtis Samuel (age 20.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #92 (range #47-#137, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter), Devin Funchess (Franchise), Darren Waller (Contributor). Ceiling is Devin Funchess (Franchise); floor is Darren Waller (Contributor). Career trajectory in receiving yards: 95 → 289 → 865. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Production concentrated in one season: best 865 receiving yards vs 3-season mean 416. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #57 and the model won't take him before #92 — a 35-spot markdown. The discount is earned — one-year wonder leads the case against.