3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Vince Biegel (age 23.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #115 (range #72-#158, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Amarlo Herrera (Bust), Henry Anderson (Franchise), Hayes Pullard (Starter). Ceiling is Markus Golden (Franchise); floor is B.J. Dubose. Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 22 spots below the room's consensus #93 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Duke Riley (age 22.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #108 (range #80-#136, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Ramik Wilson (Starter), Arik Armstead (Franchise), Shane Ray (Franchise). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Ramik Wilson (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 15 spots below the room's consensus #93 — don't pay sticker price. The 15-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Raekwon McMillan (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #39 (range #1-#83, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Arik Armstead (Franchise), Leonard Williams (Franchise), Dante Fowler (Starter). Ceiling is Leonard Williams (Franchise); floor is Deiontrez Mount (Contributor). Drafted #54 by MIA in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a value lean: #39 against a consensus #63 is a 24-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with missed entire rookie season the tax on that edge.