3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Vince Biegel (age 23.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #115 (range #72-#158, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Amarlo Herrera (Bust), Henry Anderson (Franchise), Hayes Pullard (Starter). Ceiling is Markus Golden (Franchise); floor is B.J. Dubose. Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 22 spots below the room's consensus #93 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Matt Milano (age 22.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #75 (range #33-#117, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Benardrick McKinney (Franchise), Brian Mihalik (Bust), David Mayo (Contributor). Ceiling is Benardrick McKinney (Franchise); floor is Max Valles. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 154 spots ahead of the room (board #75 vs consensus #229), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
+0.04 charting run def grade career avg; −0.03 scout consensus; −0.03 boards with him top-100