2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 92-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 60 points lower and a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jamaal Williams (age 22.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #74 (range #35-#113, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 15% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Josh Robinson (Bust), David Johnson (Franchise). Ceiling is David Johnson (Franchise); floor is Kenny Hilliard. 2 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: David Cobb, Josh Robinson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #74 sits within 11 spots of the room's #63 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 15% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects D'Onta Foreman (age 21.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #166 (range #132-#200, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 75% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Josh Robinson (Bust), Kenny Hilliard. Ceiling is Jeremy Langford (Starter); floor is Kenny Hilliard. Career trajectory in rushing yards: 74 → 681 → 2028. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: David Cobb, Josh Robinson. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #98 and the model won't take him before #166 — a 68-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.