2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: 85-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Joshua Dobbs (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #165 (range #111-#219, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Brett Hundley (Starter), Marcus Mariota (Franchise), Trevor Siemian (Franchise). Ceiling is Marcus Mariota (Franchise); floor is Brett Hundley (Starter). Career trajectory in passing yards: 695 → 1206 → 2291 → 2946. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Drafted #135 by PIT in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #82 and the model won't take him before #165 — a 84-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Chad Kelly (age 23.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #250 (range #219-#281, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Brett Hundley (Starter), Garrett Grayson, Bryce Petty (Starter). Ceiling is Jameis Winston (Franchise); floor is Garrett Grayson. Drafted #253 by DEN in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 79 spots ahead of the room (board #250 vs consensus #329) — but size the bet for the 65% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.